SPCX · TSLA · Valuation · Forecasts · Capex · Backlog · Deal math · Scenarios

SpaceX vs Tesla merger

SpaceX and Tesla have each set up special committees of independent directors to study a combination (Musk, Oct 20), but no terms are agreed and nothing has been filed; Barclays' base case is SpaceX buying Tesla with its own stock. This page lines the two companies up on the same yardsticks to answer one question: if they combine, which side is the cheaper one, and which brings more future growth?

The verdict

Cheaper today (sales)Tesla
Cheaper on future earningsSpaceX
More future potentialSpaceX
Lower riskTesla

Financial metrics side by side

Revenue and earnings, 2024 to 2028

Show
SpaceXTeslaLighter bars = estimates

Where each business is heading

      Where they already overlap

      Capex and backlog, now and next

      Capital spending, US$B

      SpaceXTeslaLighter = estimate

      Merger math

      Premium to Tesla holders

      Merger scenarios and share-price impact

      Expected move on announcement, by scenario

      TSLASPCX

      Market pays, × 2028E earnings

      What could change the answer

      Sources

      1. Investing.com: SpaceX and Tesla form special committees (Oct 20)
      2. Motley Fool: vote threshold, regulatory hurdles, Kalshi odds (Oct 23)
      3. Seeking Alpha: Polymarket and Kalshi merger odds (Oct 21)
      4. Benzinga/Yahoo: Polymarket odds by date (Oct 23)
      5. Quartz: Barclays says merger could come before AGM (Oct 15)
      6. PurePowerPicks: share math, Morningstar view, Tesla's SPCX stake
      7. Fortune: SpaceX Q3 2026 vs estimates, segment operating income
      8. Cestrian: SpaceX Q3 gross margin, cash flow, cash and debt
      9. Forbes: SpaceX nine-month capex and cash flow
      10. Blockspace: SpaceX Q4 capex and Q1 2027 revenue guidance
      11. Tikr: SpaceX consensus revenue, EPS and FCF 2026–28 (Oct 24)
      12. Raymond James: AI revenue implied by the Q1 2027 guide
      13. SpaceX profile: shares outstanding
      14. SpaceX FY2023–25 financials from the S-1
      15. Tesla Q3 2026 8-K: five-quarter financial summary
      16. Electrek: Tesla Q3 2026 results vs consensus
      17. Tesla Q3: capex cut to ~$20B, robotaxi and Optimus timelines
      18. Tesla 10-Q: 3.95B shares outstanding
      19. Tesla consensus EPS after Q3 (cross-check of FMP consensus, Oct 24)
      20. TSLA close Oct 23 · SPCX close Oct 23 · analyst targets: Yahoo Finance (Oct 24)